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即使按最乐观的估计，Neutron的LEO运载能力也只有15吨。更大可能是：早期Neutron火箭的LEO运载能力在12吨左右。这样算来，每公斤载荷的近地轨道发射成本约4000美元。而现在的Falcon 9火箭，LEO运载能力超过16吨，复用发射报价4500万美元。每公斤载荷LEO发射成本约2800美元。Falcon 9的发射成本低了约30%。更何况：（1）Falcon 9有超过640次成功发射的经验，高密度的发射使该系列火箭的成功率超过99%，这在人类航天史上绝无仅有。它会使Falcon 9商业保险的价格远低于其他商业火箭。而对于早期型号的火箭而言，商业保险的费用很可能会超过发射成本的20%！（2）现在Falcon 9火箭一子级的复用次数已经超过35次，接近马斯克当年提出的复用50次的目标。随着复用次数的提高，Falcon 9的发射成本还会进一步降低。而对于向Neutron这样的新研火箭而言，如果没有足够的发射合同，想达到这个目标路途极其漫长，根本不是短期内能实现的。（3）从产业链完整性看，SpaceX目前已经形成了非常完整的航天产业链：火箭（中型火箭【Falcon 9】、大型火箭【
0:51
即使按最乐观的估计，Neutron的LEO运载能力也只有15吨。更大可 …
201.2K views1 week ago
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